My Thoughts on Iraq

I have been listening and reading to conservative and liberal pundits, following the news, watching interviews, and trying to get a handle on what I think about the current mess we find ourselves in in Iraq.

I just wanted to share several personal reflections.

First, I do believe that we entered into the war in good faith, and that the intelligence pointed both to WMD in Iraq, and to a certain level of “cooperation,” for want of a better term, between Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda. In fact it is my personal belief that there were indeed WMD’s, and that they were whisked away before we arrived, probably to Syria. I cannot prove that; that is my best hunch as I try to put the pieces together.

Second, it is my belief that we entered the war woefully unprepared for the task ahead. There was great and profound hubris, especially on the part of Donald Rumsfeld and the other neo-cons, and an utter failure to think ahead and realize the challenges of transitioning into dealing with an insurgency, or dealing with the almost certain outbreak of sectarian violence. I think Bush received very poor advice, and was ill served by many in whom he trusted. But, since President Bush was and is the Commander in Chief, the buck ultimately stops with him. I wish he would own up more specifically to the blunders that were made in pre war planning and in post invasion decisions.

Third, given time and reflection, and the wisdom of hindsight, I cannot say that I would now say that the invasion of Iraq was a wise course of action. There does not seem to have been the imminent threat to our security as there was in Afghanistan, and there does not seem to have been a clear strategy for post invasion realities. Perhaps we could have waited a year if it was a must do, in order to get our act together first. I think, ultimately, that we invaded the wrong county.

Fourth, though I think that the concept of spreading democracy is noble, I do not believe that it is very practical in the Muslim world. Islam is in many ways, unlike Christianity, inherently theocratic. The unique kind of integration of belief and practice in Islam simply does not encourage what we might call secular forms of government. Secularism is the great enemy of Islam, at least in its present manifestation. So I don’t see a growing impulse towards representative or parliamentary democracy. Frankly, I just don’t think we understand Islam very well.

Fifth, I do think that we have done much that is good, and that there is a gross underreporting of the good things happening on the ground. The media focuses on body count. But so many of our men and women have done and are doing good things in communities all across Iraq.

Sixth, I do not think that we can up and leave. The consequences of our leaving, now that we are there, now that we have deposed Saddam Hussein and unleashed the sectarian forces bubbling under the surface in the region, would be a nightmare. In the end I believe many more Americans would be killed, tens of thousands more Iraqis would be killed, and possibly general war in the region would break out in the vacuum we would leave behind. I think that the mostly Democratic calls for leaving amount to sheer madness. Whatever threats or concerns caused us to enter Iraq in the first place would pale in comparison to what will happen when we leave, if we do not figure out a way toward stability beforehand. We cannot betray the Iraqis who have helped us as we did those in Vietnam. We cannot leave those people to the ravages of the hell that will descend upon them. It’s bad now. It will be worse than terrible then. The global war of radical Islam against the west is real and will not abate because we leave Iraq, and Iraq will become the next safe haven for Al-Qaeda cells. Shoot, after Al-Qaeda wipes out their fellow Sunnis in battle for control of Sunni held territory, they might even invite Osama himself to come stay a while.

Seventh, I don’t see any easy pathway toward stability at present. Though it may be true on some level that a majority of the people in Iraq just want to live quiet lives in peace, the majority will not determine the future. There are so many different levels of conflict, and such deep hatred amongst Sunnis and Shiites, and such a warlord mentality amongst their clerics that I despair of seeing the way forward.

Eighth, it is going to require some sort of regional cooperation, and there just may be enough self interest in the leadership of surrounding countries to work towards something that is reasonably stable and does not provide a haven for terrorist training. We got into this mess going solo more or less; we’re not going to get out of it that way. But try as I may I do not yet see an answer – partitioning may be the inevitable solution but it is a solution that scares me to death.

Ninth, Iran now poses the greatest threat. Perhaps one virtue of our being in Iraq now is that we may be in a better position to do what I think is inevitable – and that is bomb Iran’s nuclear program into the dark ages. We cannot and must not allow Iran to go nuclear. Do we really believe that Iran would be restrained by some doctrine of MAD, and would not wipe Israel off the map, or take out her Sunni enemies across the Gulf? There is a madness to radical Islam, and we cannot expect a nuclear Iran to play by the unspoken rules of national self interest that has otherwise kept the world safe from nuclear holocaust.

Tenth, I think we have gotten ourselves into a true and bona fide mess with no easy out. Ultimately the people of Iraq will have to rise to the occasion, despite the crazed and power hungry clerics, despite Al Qaeda, despite the meddling of Iran, despite the Sunni-Shiite sectarianism. Right now I am not hopeful. I am left thinking that the only way out of this mess is a miracle – one that is not foreseen. We cannot make hope for miracle a basis of policy; neither should we put too much stock in our own wisdom. Praying people need to start praying if they have not started already. For it will take a wisdom and power not of this world to get us out of this one.

That’s where I am today. Not rosy I admit.