The Cost of Chaos

Applied Rationality has a good piece today on the cost of our ongoing presence in Iraq, including the ongoing costs even if we pull out in a reasonably quick but responsible fashion. He compares this expense to what we are spending in other areas. In his words:

“To provide some perspective about the size of the funds, the $116 billion that has been requested for Iraq in FY 2008 is larger than the combined budgets of all federally-funded education, training, and social service programs ($83 billion), energy programs ($1.4 billion), and community and regional development programs ($25 billion). Alternatively, it accounts for roughly half of the projected federal deficit for FY 2008.”

Apart from the fact that I think the federal government is terribly inefficient, arbitrary and borderline corrupt in spending large sums of money (e.g., post Katrina spending), it is hard not to imagine what amount of security and economic growth and energy independence could have been created by spending that amount of money in other ways – education, energy R&D, biotechnology, welfare to work programs, etc. And of course, knowing me, I am inclined to imagine how many endangered habitat could have been saved.

However, here is my concern. Are we accounting for the very possible if not probable costs to us of being in a position of having to re-enter the fray after all hell breaks loose in the region after we leave? I know that many would say that had we not gone in in the first place we wouldn’t have to think of the post withdrawal chaos. Well, maybe so, but we did, and we do. We made our bed and now we have to sleep in it. So has someone charted out the several possible post-withdrawal scenarios that could see us re-engaged in a different capacity, and what they each could possible also cost us? Could it be worse? I wonder. I just think we need to see that spelled out before we can make a rational assessment and evaluation of the real financial costs related to our ongoing current occupation of Iraq.